Strait of Hormuz — Multi-Model Oil Market Analysis

Strait of Hormuz Closure

Multi-Model Oil Market Analysis Platform

This platform synthesizes data from over 10,000 pages of geopolitical and energy market research to model the impact of a Strait of Hormuz closure on global oil markets. It is continuously updated in real time by multiple AI research agents and coded by Claude Code.

Supported by 8+ AI models and created by geopolitical and financial experts working in a hedge fund, the platform provides scenario-based analysis, econometric modeling, interactive supply-demand simulations, and historical crisis analogues.

Disclaimer: This platform is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.

Some data points may contain errors or become outdated as the crisis evolves. All models are approximations of complex real-world dynamics.

Past performance of historical analogues does not predict future outcomes.

1 SUMMARY — AGGREGATED MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

ECONOMETRICS: SUPPLY-DEMAND EQUILIBRIUM BRENT PATH (EXCLUDING MARKET SENTIMENT)

EQUILIBRIUM PRICE TABLE — Econometric Supply-Demand Consensus (5 Models)

Horizon	Avg Mitigation ⓘ	Avg Log. Penalty ⓘ	Avg Net Deficit ⓘ	Avg Brent ⓘ	Range Low	Range High	Cum SPR ⓘ

SUPPLY-DEMAND BALANCE ASSUMPTIONS — Physical Market Parameters (mb/d by horizon)

Model	Gross Loss	Mit. Today	Mit. 1 Month	Mit. 3 Months	Mit. 6 Months	Deficit Today	Deficit 1m	Deficit 3m	Deficit 6m

RECONSTRUCTED SUPPLY & DEMAND CURVE (Day 30, Aggregated)

PHYSICAL DEFICIT AND COUNTERMEASURE EVOLUTION

PRICE DISCONNECT: WHY BRENT IS FAR BELOW MODEL ESTIMATES ▼ EXPAND

All 5 models agree the physical clearing price under full Hormuz closure should be $146–$266/b — yet Brent trades at ~$101/b. The gap is not a model error — it reflects the market pricing a probability-weighted blend of scenarios, heavily discounting the "prolonged closure" outcome. Below are the key factors suppressing price, ordered by estimated impact.

Bottom line: The ~$101 price implies ~50% probability of swift resolution. If that probability drops below 30%, Brent should reprice to $140–$180. If closure persists past SPR exhaustion (~day 120), prices converge to model estimates ($146–$210).

RE-RATING CATALYST MODEL: WHAT DRIVES PRICE TOWARD MODEL ESTIMATES ▼ EXPAND

Each scenario shows a price path from current ~$101/b toward model equilibrium. Click legend items to toggle scenarios. The Expected Path is the probability-weighted blend of all scenarios including a 35% ceasefire resolution.

RE-RATING CATALYSTS — TRIGGER CONDITIONS & PROBABILITIES ▼ EXPAND

Catalyst	Probability	Trigger Day	Peak Price	Year-End	Key Milestone

PRICE GAP DECOMPOSITION — MODEL CONSENSUS

INTERACTIVE: SUPPLY-DEMAND EQUILIBRIUM CURVES — Core Analytical Tool

This interactive chart visualizes the fundamental supply-demand equilibrium that determines the Brent crude clearing price under the Hormuz closure scenario.

The demand curve (downward-sloping) reflects how global oil consumption responds to price changes — steeper at low prices (inelastic) and flatter at high prices (elastic). The supply curve (upward-sloping) shows available supply including countermeasures. Their intersection is the market-clearing equilibrium price.

Sliders: Supply Loss adjusts the magnitude of Hormuz disruption (mb/d). Reserve Release models SPR/IEA deployments. Alt. Supply captures bypass pipelines and OPEC surge. Demand Destruction represents conservation and rationing effects.

Supply Loss (mb/d): 10 Reserve Release (mb/d): 3.3 Alt. Supply (mb/d): 1.5 Demand Destruction (mb/d): 0

        Implied clearing price: $101/b
      

2 INDIVIDUAL MODEL RESEARCH TABS Click to expand — detailed research outputs from each of the 5 independent AI research models

3 INFO MERGED — COMBINED NON-DUPLICATE DATA ▼ EXPAND

BASELINE PHYSICAL MARKET (Averaged)

Metric	Averaged Value	Range

Country	Crude (mb/d)	Products (mb/d)	Total	Bypass?

MERGED HORIZON TABLE

Horizon	Mitigation ⓘ	Log. Penalty ⓘ	Net Deficit ⓘ	Brent ($/b)	Cum SPR ⓘ	SPR Remaining ⓘ

MERGED COUNTERMEASURES (Deduplicated, Averaged)

Countermeasure	Avg Realistic (mb/d)	Range	Avg Confidence	Notes

DESTINATION EXPOSURE

Destination	Hormuz Flow (mb/d)	Share

4 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS ▼ EXPAND

CROSS-MODEL SENSITIVITY COMPARISON

Model	Low 1m	Base 1m	High 1m	Low 3m	Base 3m	High 3m	Low 6m	Base 6m	High 6m

5 RED TEAM / FAILURE MODES ▼ EXPAND

1
Bypass capacity lower than assumed. Saudi Petroline + Yanbu terminal may not sustain 3.5-5 mb/d. All models flag this as the single biggest swing factor.
2
Houthi Red Sea escalation. Yanbu bypass requires Red Sea transit. If Bab el-Mandeb is interdicted, the bypass becomes non-viable.
3
Crude quality mismatch. Gulf supply is medium/heavy sour. SPR releases are light sweet. Refineries calibrated for sour crude face yield penalties.
4
SPR less deliverable than assumed. Pipeline constraints limit US SPR to ~1.4-2.2 mb/d sustained. IEA coordination historically never exceeded 2 mb/d combined.
5
Product dislocation outpaces crude. Gulf exports ~5 mb/d products (diesel, jet, LPG). Europe relies on Gulf for 50%+ of jet fuel. Product cracks explode before Brent fully reflects stress.
6
Tanker fleet freeze. War-risk insurance cancellations could paralyze global VLCC fleet. Even released SPR oil can't move without insurable hulls.
7
Earlier reopening. A 14-30 day diplomatic resolution would crash prices rapidly. Models overstate if closure is short.
8
Demand elasticity even lower. If near-term elasticity is 0.02 instead of 0.04, price-only clearing becomes impossible for months.
9
LNG contagion. Qatar LNG (~80 mtpa, 20% global) also transits Hormuz. Gas price spike increases oil-for-power demand, partially offsetting oil demand destruction.
10
Financial market amplification. Paper-market panic, margin calls, and short-squeezes could drive transient spikes well beyond physical equilibrium.

6 FINAL JUDGMENT ▼ EXPAND

⚡ SCENARIO SIMULATOR

SCENARIO PRESETS — SELECT TO AUTO-CONFIGURE

        Note: Adjusted probabilities are normalized so all 14 scenarios sum to 100%, treating them as the exhaustive set of outcomes. Raw event-based probabilities (used in the physics simulator) remain unchanged. This normalization enables direct cross-scenario comparison.
      

      Click cycle: Unselected →
      ✓ AND (all must occur) →
      ◆ OR (any may occur) →
      Unselected
    

Conflicting events detected:

Peak Brent

—

scenario peak

3-Month Brent

—

day 90

Delta vs Base

—

at day 90

Events Selected

of 100+

BRENT CRUDE FORWARD PATH — ANCHORED TO LIVE MARKET PRICE

── Pre-War History ── Crisis Period (Observed) ◆ Today -- Scenario Forecast -- Base Case

            ⓘ BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS (click to collapse)
          

Swift Resolution Scenario — What the market prices at $101/b:
▶ Ceasefire framework: ~Day 14
▶ Hormuz reopens: ~Day 30
▶ Residual disruption: 12%
▶ Recession probability: 15%
▶ SPR bridge: active (415 mb)
▶ Saudi Petroline: active (5 mb/d)
Price Path (cubic Hermite interpolation):

                Day 0Day 7Day 14Day 30Day 60Day 90Day 180Day 270+
              
                $101$104$107$97$85$82$79$78
              
How Scenarios Work:

              • Physics engine computes supply/demand balance with event parameters

              • Delta method: scenario_price = base_path + delta × absorption × mean_reversion × adaptation

              • SPR suppression: 0.20+0.80·((t−30)/90)1.5 (400mb IEA + 415mb US SPR fill gap for 60-90 days)

              • Market belief: 0.40+0.60·(1−e−t/120) (traders discount worst case — real-world: $103 vs $350 physics)

              • Absorption: 1−e−t/τ (shock: τ=5d, gradual: τ=30d)

              • Mean reversion: 0.40 + 0.60·e−t/300 (fear premium fades, 40% permanent structural repricing)

              • Market adaptation: 1/(1+0.003t) (supply chain adjustment — gentler for prolonged crises)

              • Daily cap: max ±4% per day (calibrated: Gulf War 1.3%/d, current crisis 2.8%/d, Abqaiq 15% outlier)

              • Post-duration fade: exponential decay τ=21d (price normalizes in ~3 weeks after crisis ends)

              • closureEffectiveness base = 0.12 (12%); events add to this

              • Floor price: $40/b (marginal production cost)
            
Events compute deltas from this baseline. Zero events selected = base case only.
OR-group events contribute their probability-weighted expected price impact. AND-group events contribute their full impact.

SCENARIO PROBABILITY (AND/OR LOGIC)

100%

—

SCENARIO HORIZON TABLE

Horizon	Base Forward	Scenario Forward	Delta	Net Deficit ⓘ	SPR Remaining ⓘ

Select events from the left panel to build a custom scenario. Click once for AND (blue ✓), twice for OR (green ◆), three times to deselect.

#	Tier▲	Event ID▲	Label▲	Category▲	Dir▲	Prob%▲	mb/d▲	Conf▲	Clos.Δ▲	Sup.Δ▲	Elast▲	Adder▲	Dur▲	Sources▲	Agents	⚠▲

SOURCES

Primary: EIA (Hormuz flows, STEO), IEA Oil Market Reports (Feb/Mar 2026), OPEC MOMR, DOE (SPR data), S&P Global Platts, Aramco/ADNOC operational statements.
Elasticity: Caldara et al. (2019), Kilian & Murphy (2012), IMF WEO (2011), Labandeira et al. (2017 meta-analysis), Hamilton (2009).
Models: GPro, CDS, GmDR, GpDR, CA — five independent AI research models.

Day 0	Day 7	Day 14	Day 30	Day 60	Day 90	Day 180	Day 270+
$101	$104	$107	$97	$85	$82	$79	$78

Strait of Hormuz Closure: Multi-Model Oil Market Analysis

Strait of Hormuz Closure